Now What

Like most people who have a vested interest in life, I woke up this morning to the apparent good news that some kind of an agreement had been reached on the Greek crisis.

Most other natural laws were not being violated, according to the early morning news, but this was a real shock to the sytem of universal truths that we count on to make it from day to day. Otherwise, we'd all be stuck to the ceiling.

You'd be more inclined to believe that had Newton discovered the parachute before the Law of Gravity, things would be very different today for all of us.

Reportedly bond holders of Greek debt will take a 50% haircut. I still don't completely understand what that means, especially since I've always been a bit mystified by the world of bonds and currencies. (See: I Don't Understand Currencies)

Britain, which is putting up nothing in the bailout, simply called the EU's key players "morons", offered their advice and went back home. Much like Geithner did last month, except without the bangers and mash awaiting him at the airport.

That I understand.

I assume that when it comes to understanding words spoken with a British accent, the EU ministers are every bit as befuddled as when I watch such a movie without sub-titles. This past week it was "Another Year" at the Columbia Film Society.

Good movie, bad teeth

I think. At least about the former. As far as the latter goes, I'm quite certain of it.

So after a series of will she or won't she episodes, it appears that Greece is safe for now, but will require restraints and some kind of a padded environment.

It's so difficult to protect one from one's self.

That final requirement was a victory for the French who demanded that Greece use French drywall in its renovation of the Parthenon and those other crumbling architectural blights, as undersurfacing for the padded elements. Besides, fixing up those walls should pull in lots of international tourist dollars into the Greek economy.

As most people in that upper 1%, upon hearing the news my first thought was obviously related to how can I benefit from this moment in history?

I knew that the answer was "not that much" since many of my holdings were spoken for by the lively options premiums I received on their behalf. Besides, I don't think Netflix has large European exposure and doesn't stream much across the pond.

It would have been nice if the EU Finance Ministers at least threw Netflix some sort of bone, perhaps endorsing its plan to split the subscriber base in two.

But that's fine, because there's always tomorrow.

Tomorrow is typically when details come and euphoria fades. Reality has a way of dashing hopes and dreams.

Just ask Kim Kardashian.

Sometimes, tomorrow is 30 minutes after earnings are released and guidance is given during the conference call. Tomorrow can come at any time, but it always gets here eventually.

At any rate, today is another of those rare days that I'm working. No windows, no streaming CNBC and no clue what's going on other than the numbers on the screen, the preponderance of "greens" and an occasional glance at the New York Times website, which by the way, was brave enough to have an article today entitled "anks Calmed, but Italy Still a Worry."

I did try streaming, but had no speakers on the computer available to me. I watched the Herb Greenberg segment with Howard Lindzon, founder of StockTwits, but couldn't read anyone's lips, other than the one "motherf**ker" that I believe came from Lindzon's lips as he was probably discussing someone who he believed didn't understand the concepts of momentum and trend.

That may have been directed toward me, but you can never be certain.

As everyone back in Europe is self-congratulating themselves for a job finally done, we'll probably skip the details and wonder what's going to happen next.

One report I read said that this $1.3 trillion bailout sends the message that there's resolve to battle the same demons in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, too.

I'm sure that the Germans love that thought.

They still believe that Mussolini was a drain on their glory and they're probably anxious to help out an old and reliable ally.

All they would ask in return would be for Berlusconi to give them a few telephone numbers of some of his "aides". Not for anything fiendish or inappropriate. Perhaps just to see if any needed escorts to their high school proms.

So with all of the difficulty and the various fit and starts to try and resolve the Greek crisis, where are the voices reminding us that the Greek economy is like a guppy in the fish bowl?

I certainly understand the concept of starting small and then exporting the knowledge base and experience to larger, but similar projects, but where is the capital coming from?

With recent reports that US banks are awash in capital, a natural consequence of not lending, and the lure of some lofty European bond returns, I hope that the enticements are recognized for what they are likely to be.

The nomination of Angelo Mozilo, as the United States non-voting representative to the European Central Bank is probably not a good sign.

Just in case, I've diverted my non-invested cash into something more safe than our own banking system.

I've just stuffed it into those coffers maintained at the Occupy Wall Street rallies, that presumably will be used for food and lodging over the winter, as Occupy Wall Street becomes a profession for some protestors. I'm even happy to support their annual trek down to warmer winter climates, as befits New Yorkers of all percentiles, as they take "Occupy Boca" to heart.

See? College was worth it, after all.

You'd really get that feeling if you bought Sallie Mae after the big hit it took on Tuesday. You would have been nicely rewarded as the reality hit.

Sometimes reality tells us that things are going in the right direction, or that at least thinhs aren't quite as bad as unbridled imaginations made them out to be.

Sallie Mae may be all that is evil in the world of higher education, but I can guarantee that there are at least some protestors somewhere that have benefited from Sallie Mae's climb from a few dollars per share up to its current share price.

Of course, that conveniently overlooks the days wehen it was in the $50 range.

With the market spending much of the day in the 300 point higher vicinity, I did take some time to sell some more options. Halliburton, Rio Tinto, Cheasapeake Energy, Riverbed Technology, Freeport mcMoRan and even Netflix.

I also bought some more ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF shares, demonstrating precisely the mechanism that I became so top heavy in these shares. Just little by little, with each rise in silver's price, 've been accumulating the short shares.

Up until the past few days that's been a very good strategy, but so far, for this options cycle, I've only been able to hedge about 30% of my shares, so the precipitous drop in those shares in now limiting my portfolio gains.

Just a couple of weeks ago it was precisely the opposite.

The reason for the big difference?

Who knows?

But even with silver and gold, it's appropriate to ask "Now what?"

Although working, I do have Twitter going and occasionally stop by to check.

There are lots of very happy people and only the occasional complaint.

That may be the kind of thing that Lindzon may have been talking about this afternoon, if only I'd had sound.

Although I understand the concepts of trend and momentum, I also understand the inviolate physical law of inertia. It takes a mjor event to stop momentum, but in the case of the markets, it only takes a trivial and unsubstantiated rumor.

And then there's gravity, as well. Throw that into the mix.

At the very least, there's probably little reason to ask "what's next" when it comes to physical laws of the universe. Remember, Newton never did discover the parachute.

Unless someone corroborates the Italian demonstration of particles faster than light, there's good reason to believe that there's nothing next on the universal truths spectrum.

Instead, we're off to Italy with a discerning and questioning eye, as there's reason to doubt both the speed of neutrinos and the ability of the Berlusconi government to put forward a fiscally responsible plan.

What's next? Not the basement, but I don't think we're headed for the penthouse quite yet, either.

Reality will be back, as will doubts, finger pointing and cold feet.

What's next?

Tomorrow. And there's no telling what that may bring, although trade for disappointment and pain.

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ page paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. See a sneak preview of Chapter 1. hoco blogs

Want to instantly download PDF file with full color charts and tables?

 

 

  

Invest like TheAcsMan

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  hoco blogs

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. Use 10% Discount Code P4S2ZD8H

 

  

I Hate Haircuts

There's been so much talk about "haircuts" lately.

Wall Street is good when it comes to descriptive terms that may or may not describe anything. We've had quantitative easing (1 and 2), risk on/risk off, kicking the can down the road, dead cat bounce, rip your face off rally and now haircuts.

As best as I can figure, in financial terms, the extent of a "haircut" refers to how much give back is necessary to achieve something resembling financial solvency.

As opposed to the real world of hair cutting where there is no cost differential based on the amount of hair shorn, it appears that the extent of the haircut elicits fevered opinions as the perceived costs are culturally unsettling.

Greeks, apparently are a hairy bunch. Thank goodness Armenia isn't a member of the EU.

As soon as talk centers on the possibility of Greece perhaps needing to take a bigger haircut than initially thought, there's more rioting on the streets of Athens.

Retiring at age 27 instead of 25 makes some people very angry. Angry enough to toss Molotov cocktails made from the strange green antiseptic liquid that cleans the instruments of haircutting.

Haircuts do that sort of thing to people.You know how irrational people can be when they get a haircut that doesn't suit them or that doesn't satisfy their preconceived notions.

With the remnants of my Jew-Fro, I still aspire to look like Jennifer Ansiton after each haircut, but am serially disappointed.

Speaking of haircuts and serial disappointments, look at poor Jon Corzine, CEO of MF Global.

On Tuesday, MF Global had the fine distinction of losing even more, on a percentage basis, than even Netflix.

Did I mention that Jon Corzine was follicularly challenged?

First he was forced out as CEO of Goldman Sachs, then he leaves after a single term as New Jersey Senator, to use his hands on organizational skills to lead New Jersey during the beginning of the area's financial meltdown.

Depending on your perspective, Corzine either gets a demerit for bad timing or a slap on the back of the head.

For bad timing.

Did I so neglect to mention that New Jersey was perhaps every bit as much dependent on the health of Wall Street as is Wall Street? The state didn't fare terribly well during the Corzine administration as Wall Street melted down.

If you want to talk about where Main Street meets Wall Street, look no further than the newly rehabilitated cities of New Jersey.

Of course, there's always the embarrassing evening when Corzine was at the Islamic Society of Central Jersey and was mistakenly characterized as being Jewish.

That's not going to help your election chances, at least not among the Central Jersey electorate. It doesn't matter how often you deny it. His problem was that he didn't vehemently deny it. He should have had his publicist add an "h" to "Jon".

That he was voted out in favor of Chris Christie, who is fully maned and obviously not Jewish, is just coincidental. But you don't find very many Jews that use the name of the Savior as both their first and last names

After trying his hand at politics, it was back to Wall Street for Jon Corzine.

For a guy that doesn't have much on top, he took another huge haircut on Wednesday, as shares of MF Global, with many financial interests in Europe just got hammered again.

I feel badly for Jon Corzine, although the worst may be yet to come.

That is, if Dick Bove, who is not one of my favorites, is correct in the suggestion that Goldman Sachs is a possible buyer of MF Global.(See: I Never Liked Dick Bove)

In that case, Corzine may request a cut starting at the neck.

In the wake of Netflix and now Amazon, I've gotten a haircut well beyond what I had asked for.

You can't even begin to tell that there's a Jew Fro in there somewhere.

I hate haircuts of all kinds.

When I first moved to the Maryland area, I had to find a replacement for the Faleri Brothers, the two raging anti-semitic haircutter brothers, with horrid gingivitis and a penchant for overly small Qiana shirts. To their credit, they did an admirable job with my difficult to maintain mane.

One thing that I learned during that period was that when one makes distasteful comments and has a sharp instrument in their hands, disagreeing is really a question of proper timing.

It had taken me years to get used to them, although I'm not certain why that was the case.

After my first haircut in my new home at one of those mall franchise places, I was asked by the "stylist" how I liked the haircut.

I always say that I liked it, despite the fact that I could never see what  was looking at without my glasses being placed back on.

Upon telling her that it did, in fact, like the haircut, she then proceeded to ask me if I would be willing to sponsor her brother so that he might emigrate from Hait to the United States.

That seemed like a reasonable reuest, so upon thinking about it for a brief nano-second, instead, I gave her an extra 5% in the tip and never returned.

For the next 15 years I just continued being ill at ease having my hair cut and being handled by people with very sharp instruments near the organ  of mine that I treasured the most.

No. I don't get Brazilians.

I rarely would go, only doing so when Sugar Momma would threaten not to go out with me in public until I made myself presentable.

About 6 months ago, by special request, Sugar Momma gave me a haircut. She had never done so before, but I had it with trying to make small talk, reading totally uninteresting magazines and constantly being peddled all kinds of hair products.

Long story short? Best decision of my life. In return, I vowed to trim my beard on a regular basis.

No conversation. No tipping. All I need to do is sweep up the curls and sleep with the girls.

Now, Sugar Momma refuses to be seen in public with me because of the tee shirts I choose to wear. They're not even made of Qiana, but they tend to be Malt liquor centric, as hand me downs from my son, whose friend's father owned a liquor store.She doesn't think it appropriate that I be seen in public with such attire.

What can I say? It's all a work in progress.

As the trading week itself was progressing to the mid-point, Iwas adjusting my selt belt for Green Mountain Coffee Roaster's earnings announcement in anticipation of yet another haircut. Instead, word came that the announcement wouldn't come today, as planned.

Given the warnings this week from David Einhorn and others, that can't be good news.

At the very least Netflix showed a bit of a bounce after Whitney Tilson, the oft wrong Netflix short of past, announced that he was now buying Netflix shares. That sent shares up by about 4%.

4 down and 30 to go, but you still can't even see a 5 o'clock shadow on my skull.

The one thing that was really reinforced for me after these few days of overly speculative play is that I really don't like getting my hair cut.

I don't mind a little trim, as long as my new growth exceeds the removal.

Someday, and that day will come, maybe for Jon Corzine, as well, that I'll be able to look into the mirror and see the perfectly layered shag so wonderfully worn by Jennifer.

But until then, despite Sugar Momma making the whole process a little more tolerable, haircuts will remain well down my list of favorite things, along with Netflix, Amazon, Green Mountain and any Wall Street words du jour.

But unlike Jon Corzine, I know that when I get clipped, literally or figuratively, it's coming back.

So no matter how bad the cut, I just take the glasses off and it looks great.

Netflix will be just fine and so will Amazon. Once they come back, or I make up the difference between buy and sell price with options premiums, they'll be gone.

If it doesn't work out that way for Jon Corzine, I'd like to be among the first to invite him to me in my personal Hair Club for Men, where no one cares what length of hair you have, the length of your beard or what tee shirts you sport.

Things can only get better.

 

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ page paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. See a sneak preview of Chapter 1. hoco blogs

Want to instantly download PDF file with full color charts and tables?

 

 

  

Invest like TheAcsMan

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  hoco blogs

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. Use 10% Discount Code P4S2ZD8H

 

  

Give up your Dreams, Now

One of the problems with getting older is that you don't dream quite as frequently , vividly or with as much imagination.

Maybe you just don't have the same ability to recall, but something is different. There's a strong correlation between erosion of dreams and ear hair.

I happen to have been trained and educated as a Pediatric Dentist, but I rarely think about teeth during the course of the day. I certainly don't dream about teeth or even hygienists, who were often the punchline of a Woody Allen joke.

I'm certain that some people may have dreams, more appropriately, nightmares about me or my ilk. Maybe even about Woody Allen.

There's no accounting for the excess baggage that some people carry with themselves throughout life.

In what I can only describe as a nightmare, I awoke a bit earlier this morning than usual with a dream freshly painted in my mind.

For some reason, I was actually a Dentist in the dream. I even was wearing one of those short white coats that I never wore in real life. But there I was, left with the responsibility of explaining to someone why they had cavities, but I wasn't allowed to draw any cause and effect between their horrid diet or lack of anything resembling hygiene and their acquisition of cavities.

I think it was for reasons of national security and the information was on a "need to know basis" only.

Hard as I tried to rationalize a need to disclose the true cause and effect for the odontogenic malady, I just couldn't connect the dots.

I like cause and effect.

It explains a lot.

Yesterday, I proudly laid out for Sugar Momma my theory on why dogs, our dachshund Laszlo, specifically, bark at joggers, cars and delivery guys.

Getting into a dog's mind, it occured to me that being somewhat protective of his terrritory, Laszlo's second instinct is to bark. But that instinct gets repeatedly reinforced as the jogger always keeps on running and the delivery guys never stop and stay for a spot of tea.

In Lazlo's mind, those intruders weren't going about their usual activity, they were chased away by his barking.

So, I don't even like suspending basic laws of cause and effect for my own dreams.

Cause and effect was probably a good way to describe my waking nightmares through Tuesday's trading and the afterhours.

No doubt, the cause of Netflix's 35% trading fall was due to the poorly conceived strategy to send DVD renters off into the sunset. Although that strategy makes more sense, than say, The Gap splitting itself into a streaming jeans business and a mail order jeans business, the market didn't like the fact that the normal attrition of subscribers wasn't replaced by new subscribers.

The fact that there's no really good alternative to Netflix for those that chose to leave really points at the serious nature of their corporate miscalculation.

Did I mention that my Doppleganger bought Netflix shares yesterday? I'm not certain which of us bought more shares today, but depending on the outcome of those shares, I still reserve the right to blame "evil me."

The same evil me bought Amazon and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters yesterday, as well.

In what can only be described as a bad case of "deja vous," Amazon released earnings that exceeded expectations.

Normally that's a good thing, unless it's in the wrong direction.

Can you guess the direction?

Green Mountain is on deck for tomorrow and there's no shortage of reasons to expect disappointing results, so I'm expecting a climb upward.

In yesterday's blog, I pointed my finger and placed all blame for making these very uncharacteristic trades on some evil Doppleganger.

But in reality, let's face. I may be in denial and not really want to take the responsibility for breaking some of my own fundamental rules, but the trades were based on something.

No doubt they were based on some sort of dream.

Not the kind that necessarily required deep slumber, but more the kind borne out of wishful thinking. The dream that you would catch an earning's report just in the right direction and make a quick hit.

My dreams used to be about hitting home runs, now they're not.

Obviously, neither of those dreams are likely to happen.

But the actions that I took just made certain that today turned out to be another dream turned into a nightmare.

But Netflix, as culturally key as it is, just isn't enough to move the markets.

Texas Instruments, which also reported disappointing numbers on Monday used to be able to move markets. But no more.

So I can't really blame the Doppleganger and I can't blame Reed Hastings or Jeff Bezos for the rest of today's nightmares.

Silver and Sallie Mae both did their best Freddy Krueggers and I can't begin to see their association with streaming or peddling online.

Silver skyrocketted, so my ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF's did the opposite, although I was lucky to sell some calls near today's high.

But then there's the Sallie Mae debacle. There's some rumor about a consolidation of college lenders out there. That was the same rumor that circulated about 3 years ago, as being on the Obama Administration hit list.

In those 3 years, I've done reallly well with Sallie Mae and selling its calls. Those days may be coming to an end, but even that has a sense of "deja vous" about it.

If Sallie Mae stays in the $12 range I may join some of the Occupy Wall Street protestors to complain about how worthless all of the education I have is, in the face of my relatively high cost basis on shares of the stock that many borrowers love to hate.

Today's market as a whole seemed to be surprised that the rumor of a meeting between EU Finance Ministers to talk about a plan, wasn't going to happen on Wednesday.

That's what its all come down to.

Rumors are a little like dreams. They don't necessarily have a basis in reality, but they can become their own reality, shaping our actions and creating expanded borders for our fears.

At some point, it might be nice if the rumors would become as rare as the dreams.

I'm perfectly willing to give up dreams of teeth, hygienists and even cotton candy unicorns if it meant that I wouldn't succumb to the unrealistic dreams of waking life and the man made dreams fired by rumors.

To the Doppleganger out there that has made the past two days somewhat hellish, I have the inner strength to admit that you don't exist.

I alone am responsible for falling prey to my unrealistic dreams, but I dream of the day that will no longer happen.

 

 

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ page paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. See a sneak preview of Chapter 1. hoco blogs

Want to instantly download PDF file with full color charts and tables?

 

 

  

Invest like TheAcsMan

Option to Profit is available as either an eBook or 300+ paperback. Take a humorous look at a serious topic and learn how to make your portfolio finally go to work for you in bull and bear market environments.

See a sneak preview of Chapter 1.  hoco blogs

More about the book and purchase options. Scroll down and read the Szelhamos Rules blog, updated every weekday.

Find  OTP Book at Amazon, B&N or now you can also Order direct  from publisher. Use 10% Discount Code P4S2ZD8H